The US-China trade war seems to have subsided – but the sense of calm is misleading

A truce has cooled the trade conflict, but neither country has done anything to limit the outbreak of new hostilities Donald Trump ’s trade wars have largely fallen off the headlines. Fears of new tariffs flare up from time to time when the US president goes off the rails – for instance, threatening to end US trade with countries with which it has a deficit unless the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. But the sense that the world’s two largest economies are plowing ahead into an overt economic conflagration has taken a back seat to other, more salient fears, about Trump ending American democracy, AI killing us all and stuff like that. The sense of calm is misleading. Under the radar, the world is marching toward an economic war of potentially epic proportions, one that, history suggests, could well spill over into the real thing. Continue reading...

美中贸易战表面上因休战协议而降温，实际上双方正围绕稀土、半导体等关键供应链展开一场新的经济战。作者认为，这种相互依赖已从和平工具变成战争筹码，爆发冲突的风险不容低估。